Running with Rick: Betting value with Alex Fitzpatrick in Canada

This will be only the second time TPC Toronto hosts the RBC Canadian Open, with the first coming last year. That was a Ryan Fox victory, beating Sam Burns in a playoff.

The truth is, with only one year’s worth of data, there’s probably a lot about this venue that we don’t know. We can embrace that and build a betting card that rewards upside and recent form over a perceived course fit.

We do know that TPC Toronto can stretch to nearly 7,400 yards as a par 70. While there is trouble off the tee in the form of bunkers, trees and water hazards, that trouble doesn’t seem close enough to make a huge impact. I’ve downgraded driving accuracy in my own model because I don’t believe there will be a significant cost for missing the fairway.

The field has a “big three” of Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Sam Burns. They are all between +1100 and +1400, with a gap to Collin Morikawa, who is currently sitting at +2400 on the outright board.

Brooks Koepka and Viktor Hovland return to action this week, looking to play spoiler. The rest of the field is filled with golfers who are playing some of their best golf of the year right now. Let’s build a betting card – using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

I’m not a huge fan of making bold, definitive statements, but I’ll give it a go: Alex Fitzpatrick is the most mispriced golfer in the field. He’s +4200 to win the RBC Canadian Open, and that outright number drives the rest of his market. That means I believe there’s value in his finishing positions, matchups and really anywhere you can get him.

In his five PGA TOUR starts this year, he has a win and three other top-10 finishes. The top 10s have all been in Signature Events, so he’s well-versed in tackling a strong field. He’s gained strokes off the tee in all of his measured events, but he’s doing more than just “gaining strokes.” If he had enough rounds to qualify for stats, he’d be inside the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. But that’s not all. His tee-to-green mark is sitting at +1.55 strokes per round, which is second in this field to his brother, Matt Fitzpatrick.

As impressive as this run has been, it’s not even remotely close to telling the whole story. Fitzpatrick has five more top-20s on the DP World Tour this year, including another win at the Hero Indian Open. That event is held at DLF Golf and Country Club, which is widely considered one of the most difficult courses in the world.

He has answered the bell at every step in his professional journey, and there’s no reason to think that will stop anytime soon.

In a similar vein, Kristoffer Reitan has also emerged on the scene in 2026. His win at this year’s Truist Championship was unlikely (+9600), but it wasn’t out of nowhere. Reitan had three top-15 finishes, including a runner-up at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, immediately leading into the Truist.

It would have been easy to take a breath and slow down after his victory, but Reitan has kept chugging along. He finished T44 at the PGA Championship, where he gained more than six strokes from tee to green, and T6 at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. That finish last week was spurred by the +7.57 strokes he gained on approach. His final-round 65 was not only the round of the day, but it was also bogey-free.

Reitan offers significant upside and could be deployed in any number of markets. My favorite is the top-10 market, in which he is currently listed at +245 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

We are seeing the growth in Michael Brennan's game on a near-weekly basis. His win in Utah last year was impressive. He gained over seven strokes off the tee at the demanding Black Desert Resort. It tagged him as an elite driver, but that’s not his only skill. He’s starting to hit his approach shots more consistently, beating the field in seven of his last 10.

His biggest struggle comes on the putting surfaces, but he’s a “pop putter,” capable of getting hot for four rounds at a time. We saw him gain nearly four strokes putting in Houston, and he added 5.5 to his stat sheet at Colonial. He’s moving in the right direction, but I would offer a bit of restraint. Brennan is a solid top-20 option, with odds listed at +205.

It wouldn’t be a Canadian Open without making a pick for Top Canadian. With nearly 20 options to choose from, I’ve circled A.J. Ewart at +1000 as my value option. He will need to continue his putting gains this week at TPC Toronto. Ewart has picked up more than 10 strokes putting in his last eight rounds, and it has been the best part of his game this year.

The tee-to-green aspect is slowly, but surely, improving. He’s earned top-20 finishes in back-to-back starts and has three such finishes in his last four. Many of his fellow countrymen have struggled on the course in 2026, making Ewart the Canadian with the sixth-shortest odds in this market.

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